Certainty is a Prison

Knowledge is fluid. Science and medicine and technology is not absolute. While there are some absolute truths, there will always be variables to just about any situation. This was one of the most frustrating aspects of the pandemic. People thought they were being lied to or that the experts didn’t know what they were talking about. That’s because, while there are other coronaviruses out there, Covid 19 was what they call…novel. That means, it’s never been seen before.

It acted differently than anything the doctors were prepared for. When they treated it the way they’d treated other coronaviruses, it responded just the opposite. Some tried and true remedies actually made things worse. It was like driving a car. You’ve driven every day since you got your license, but for some reason, steering right took you in the opposite direction. The doctors needed to learn how to drive a totally different vehicle.

A good scientist knows new information is always forthcoming. They understand medicine is not an exact science. Knowledge grows and we must grow and change with it. The problem comes when certainty is introduced. Certainty is usually maintained by those who do not know what they do not know. It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Wikipedia defines the Dunning-Kruger effect as the “cognitive bias whereby people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.” It’s what has often been stated as “a little knowledge can be dangerous.” This is not meant to imply a lack of intelligence…just a lack of knowledge and some level of self-awareness.

There’s a lot of black and white thinking in the world today. Experts are more cautious because they grasp this concept. I was reading some comments yesterday on Twitter. People were getting impatient with the J6 Committee and what they perceive as dragging their heels, when in all actuality, the nature of a true investigation is not rapid and it’s not black and white. It takes time. If things are done in a slipshod fashion, results are less trustworthy.

We put ourselves in a self-imposed prison when we become absolutely certain. I belong to an online faith-based discussion group for people who have become disillusioned with organized religions. I enjoy the repartee and find different interpretations force me to dive deeper and read more to satisfy my own thirst for knowledge. The other day, someone posted “Certainty is a prison you don’t know you’re in, till you’re out of it.”

There is a lot of truth in that. In my second marriage, I was absolutely certain I would be married to my husband till death us do part…because that’s the vow we made. I didn’t take into consideration that we wouldn’t or that we would change or that hanging onto that “certainty” would nearly kill me. It’s best demonstrated by comparing it to a severe illness that comes on gradually. You do not realize how dreadfully sick you were till you felt better.

More and more people are falling into a black and white mentality these days. And it’s so easy to get angry and call each other stupid for believing differently. That approach is seldom fruitful. There are truths and there are untruths. The problem lies in the telling and who you trust telling it. That is a direct consequence of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I’ll give you an example. Recently, there was a claim that students in Michigan who “identify as cats” were getting litter boxes installed in the bathrooms of grade schools to accommodate them. Seriously. A senator…a seated senator actually brought this up in outrage. And what followed was three weeks of discussion and righteous indignation on the internet, social media, and school boards. It turns out, of course, that this was totally bogus without an ounce of truth to it. But some people read it and, based on who was doing the telling, assumed it must be true without using an ounce of critical thinking skills or investigation.

I grew up in the generation that was taught to question authority. This develops critical thinking skills. We all have our own beliefs and values, but KNOWING that we don’t know everything is vitally important in the ability to expand our knowledge and not become mired in the prison of certainty.